Debunking 3 Myths about Planning Amid Uncertainty
October 9, 2025 | By David M. Wagner
Debunking 3 Myths about Planning Amid Uncertainty
Federal funding cuts. Political attacks on specific causes. Defunding of the Institute of Museum and Library Services. State budget chaos. General economic turmoil. Now a federal government shutdown.
It’s a hard time to be a nonprofit or library (or any) leader.
How can you think about what the future at a time like this?
I was inspired to consider this question after friend and colleague Nicki Van Veen shared a recent conversation she had with strategic foresight consultant Becky Cooperman.
And I felt compelled to address three myths I’ve heard about planning lately.
Myth: Now is a bad time to make long-range plans.
Fact: Planning is more essential in times of uncertainty, not less!
It’s tempting to say, “We won’t make plans past the next 12 months because we don’t know what will happen.”
That could be a costly mistake!
Don’t ignore the real impact of recent changes on your plans. But if the alternative is to stay in a holding pattern, you’ll miss key opportunities to advance your mission.
Ensure your plans include conditions and contingencies that will help keep your goals on track in the most likely scenarios.
Myth: We know less about the future now than we did a year ago.
Fact: The future is always uncertain; recent events have given you more information about risks to anticipate.
Ask anyone who completed a strategic plan in 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Or right before the fiscal crisis in 2007-2008.
Risk management is an important tool for anticipating possible issues and adjusting your plans accordingly.
Maybe you hadn’t considered the impact of massive cuts to federal grants or rising materials costs on your organization before this year. You know more about those risks, and perhaps some others you can imagine, than you did a year ago.
Plan accordingly.
Myth: We should focus on shorter timelines.
Fact: While your approach may change, your planning horizons don’t need to.
I’m still advising my strategic planning clients to make plans that extend 3, 4, even 5 years into the future. That long-term view is important because many initiatives or outcomes take that long to unfold.
The tree you want to cultivate in the future requires that you plant the seed today.
Delaying long-term planning may mean missing the window to take steps in the near-term that are necessary for achieving those long-term goals.
If you already have a long-term strategy in place, now is the perfect time to revisit it. What impact have recent changes made on your goals or approaches? What new (or more likely) risks do your plans need to account for in the coming years?
I’ll end with this: If your organization is in crisis, deal with that first. If there are new (or more likely) risks on the horizon, make or adjust plans to weather the storm. Just don’t use the storm as an excuse to delay starting your long-term planning. Reach out if you need a hand with any of those.